As early voting gets underway in Georgia, a new study suggests incumbent Republican Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, plus Rep. Doug Collins are facing turbulent election fights ahead. According to a new poll released Tuesday by Civiqs (pronounced civics), Perdue trails Jon Ossoff 47%-45%. Perdue is in a dead heat with former Columbus mayor Teresa Tomlinson 45%-44%. Perdue is leading by three points against Sarah Riggs Amico 45%-42% if the election were held today.
Consequentially, the poll did not include a question about the June 9th Democratic primary for the right to take on Senator Perdue in November. However, 39% of respondents have a favorable view of Senator Perdue, largely consistent with and reflective of President Donald J. Trump’s poll numbers.
The Civiqs/DailyKos Outlet Poll contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 1339 registered voters in Georgia from May 16-18, 2020. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs.
Also in the poll, The Reverend Raphael Warnock, Pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church would lead both Senator Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins if the special election runoff were held today. Reverend Warnock would lead Senator Loeffler 45-32 and has a one-point lead over Rep. Collins. (45-44).
If the election were held today, Georgia would undoubtedly be in play for the Democrats. Former Vice President Joe Biden would lead President Donald Trump 48-47, according to the poll. One interesting facet of the poll is are the unfavorability ratings of Governor Brian P. Kemp, Biden, and Trump.
Of those that answered the survey, 48% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Governor Kemp. 11% of respondents are unsure of the Governor’s standing and/or performance. 51% of respondents have an unfavorable view of President Trump and a majority of respondents have a 54% unfavorable view of Biden.
The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, and party identification to be representative of the population of registered voters in Georgia. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.36. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1%.
The first takeaway from the Ossoff outperformed his Democratic rivals among the most important bloc of voters in the primary: African-Americans. The poll showed 88% of black voters would support him in a matchup against Perdue, compared with 79% for Tomlinson and 76% for Amico. Secondly, both Ossoff and Tomlinson are highly thought of in the Georgia Democratic Party. According to the poll, Ossoff would garner 93% of Democratic support in an election battle against Senator Perdue. Teresa Tomlinson would garner 86% of Democratic support.
Even though Reverend Warnock would lead in the special election runoff if he were to square off against either Senator Loeffler or Rep. Collins, Warnock is only carrying 40% of both the Democratic support and African-American support leading into June 9th.
Lastly, the poll has incumbent Senator Loeffler losing to Ed Tarver, Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman. Loeffler has been embroiled in controversy beginning with Governor Kemp appointing her to the seat, rather than Rep. Collins, who most likely would be backed by President Trump. Republican backers have since called on Loeffler to step aside as she battles the negative vibes stemming from her stock purchases before the COVID-19 pandemic.