By virtue of the 34-10 loss Sunday to the Chicago Bears, the Jacksonville Jaguars have clinched the number one pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, in all likelihood, winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. With two straight wins, the New York Jets have secured the second pick. They are expected to take Oregon offensive lineman, Penei Sewell, with the hopes he can protect quarterback Sam Darnold. The Miami Dolphins are picking third because that pick, which was acquired in the Laremy Tunsil trade, has risen after the Houston Texans lost to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons are currently in the fourth spot after their 17-14 loss to the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans have a worse winning percentage than the Falcons, by eight one-hundredths of a point. Rounding out the top five, for now, are the Cincinnati Bengals.
Strength of schedule serves as the first tiebreaker. For example, the Atlanta Falcons and the Houston Texans have are each 4-11. Houston, in this scenario, beat worse teams, which suggests the Texans are worse off than the Falcons.
The remaining tiebreakers are listed in order of importance:
- Head-to-head, if applicable
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- Strength of victory in all games
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
The full list can be seen via Tankathon.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-14, .548
- New York Jets: 2-13, .593
- Miami Dolphins — from Houston Texans: 4-11, .542
- Atlanta Falcons: 4-11, .550
- Cincinnati Bengals: 4-10-1, .527
- Philadelphia Eagles: 4-10-1, .531
- Detroit Lions: 5-10, .504
- New York Giants: 5-10, .506
- Carolina Panthers: 5-10, .529
- Denver Broncos: 5-10, .567