The US is taking control of Venezuela and targeting Greenland. The Dow could still hit 50,000

(CNN) — The United States attacked Venezuela and President Donald Trump is threatening to take Greenland “the hard way.” All the while, the US has an uncertain economic outlook and a weak jobs report.

But the Dow Jones Industrial Average could still hit a record 50,000 points on Monday.

The Dow, which consists of large companies that are thought to be representative of the market, usually reflects broader American sentiment. When tensions are high or people are gloomy, the Dow tends to drop; when people sing a more positive tune, the Dow trends upward.

Now, Americans are facing a stark political divide: strikes in Venezuela, protests against ICE following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis mother, the economy capping off 2025 with weak job gains and intentions to “do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

That should mean the Dow is suffering, not nearing a record high. So, why is it contradicting history?

Economic impact over big headlines

Wall Street is more concerned with the economic impact of Trump’s political moves, such as whether strikes in Venezuela could disrupt the flow of oil.

But Trump has proposed that the US will invest in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, potentially tapping into the country’s crude — which amounts to about a fifth of the world’s global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

It could increase defense spending, but not enough to spook the market, said Jay Hatfield, chief executive at Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

“It’s really critical to focus on the economic drivers of the stock market and recognize that the political and international affairs issues are just that, unless they’re extreme,” he said.

No official deals have been reached, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN’s Kristen Holmes, but there was “tremendous interest” from major oil companies after Friday’s meeting between administration officials and executives.

Opening up the flow of oil would boost the economy, noted Hatfield, which is a more optimistic outlook for investors.

The index continued to post gains throughout the week as America’s tensions shifted inward. On Friday, the Dow gained another 237 points.

There’s a few reasons for optimism: Trump ordered his “representatives” to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive down housing costs, investors are looking forward to AI adoption and there haven’t been mass layoffs, Hatfield said.

Gloomy consumers are still shopping

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey showed that sentiment increased in January for the second consecutive month, to a preliminary reading of 54, up from December’s 52.9. Most people were surveyed before the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

Americans have a more sour outlook on Trump’s economy due to concerns about more expensive groceries and services. But it’s not translating to consumer spending, which has continued to support the economy.

US retail sales on Black Friday, for instance, climbed 4.1% compared with last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse data.

It’s largely due to the K-shaped economy, where wealthier Americans continue to spend as their wallets are bolstered by the strong stock market, wage gains and higher home values. Meanwhile, lower income households pull back on spending because of the slowing job market, high debt and inflation.

“They’re a little bit cautious that jobs aren’t being created, but they’re not losing jobs either,” said Paul Christopher, the head of Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s global investment strategy. And this year is expected to have strong job growth, he said.

Interest rate cut optimism

Investors are still optimistic about the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates, after three back-to-back rate cuts in 2025, noted Hatfield.

There could be more volatility in the coming weeks, though, because of earnings season and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December Consumer Price Index report releases, according to Christopher.

The “no-hire no-fire” jobs report gives the Fed a green light to cut rates, he said.

“The markets look through the other stuff, the political stuff, and they’re going to focus on what’s going to be, we think, a pretty strong economy in 2026. So whether we hit Dow (50,000) on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll sort of look at the larger picture here,” Christopher said.