Trump’s shocking 2016 election upset knocked the wind out of plenty of folks, decimated their belief in the U.S. political system and pretty much changed life as many people know it. However, changes in the U.S. electorate, specifically regarding demographics, may push political karma to the side of Democrats, who tend to be favored by voter segments comprised of people of color.
An increase in the number of eligible Black voters may set the stage for a Trump loss in 2020, according to The States Of Change report, which was authored by several groups including the Center for American Progress and the Bipartisan Policy Center. Here’s how Black voters could challenge Trump:
Pay Attention To Demographics Changes
Voting blocs — including African-Americans, Latinos and Asians — will have more of a share of the total eligible vote by 2020. The groups will grow one percentage point, with Blacks going from 12 percent in 2016 to 13 in 2020, the report revealed.
As the voter segments expand, the percentage of eligible “White without a college degree” voters will drop by 2 points, from 46 percent to 44. Trump was largely reliant on that voting group in 2016.
There is still an overwhelmingly White majority of eligible voters, but changes in turnout and support among Black voters in 2020 could put Trump at a disadvantage.
Black turnout and the Democrats’ margin of support with African Americans have both dropped by a significant amount in 2016 when Trump was elected, NBC News reported. If more Black Americans voted, especially with the fight to restore voting rights to ex-felons going on in states across the nation, the election results could be different.
Educate Others On Trump
Trump has proven to be a divisive figure, and his current approval ratings are low, according to NBC. How those substandard ratings could influence the election may be hard to determine now, but as 2020 gets closer, it will likely be easier to see what effect the numbers may have on the race.